基于ARIMA模型的消費品公司預算管理分析.pdf

1、基于ARIMA模型的消費品公司預算管理分析目錄目錄摘要...........................................................……HABSTRACT........................................................……工11第一章引言.............................................……l1.1消費品公司預

2、算管理現(xiàn)狀.........……，........................……11.2潔雅公司預算管理存在的問題....................................……51.3本文的主要內容................................................……61.4本文的章節(jié)按排................................................……

3、7第二章A硯毗模型理論基礎..........................................……82.1時間序列分析的基本概念........................................……82.2時間序列模型.................................................……102.3ARIMA模型建立的步驟............................

4、..............……132.4建模工具EV工EWS介紹..........................................……13第三章潔雅公司預算管理的需求分析................................……153.1潔雅公司預算管理概況.........................................……153.2潔雅公司預算規(guī)劃....................

5、.........................……193.2.1潔雅公司的預算目標.........................................……193.2.2潔雅公司的預算指標.........................................……203.3潔雅公司預算數(shù)據(jù)需求.........................................……21第四章AR工MA模型在潔雅公司

6、預算管理中的應用...............……，…，…234.1潔雅公司預算管理的分析流程...................................……234.2潔雅公司ARIMA預算模型的建立.................................……244.2.1數(shù)據(jù)處理...................................................……244.2.2模型識別.....

7、.......................……，................……314.2.3模型參數(shù)估計和檢驗.........................................……324.2.4預測潔雅公司預算............................................……38紐.3與同類系統(tǒng)的比較...........................................

8、...……，l04.理ARIMA模型的應用效果..........................................……犯第五章結淪，....................................................……拍5.1潔雅公司預算管理分析的創(chuàng)新點.................................……腸5.2不足與展望................……，...........

9、.................……47參考文獻.........................................................……48致謝.........................................................……49基丁幾ARIMA模型的消費品公司預算管理分析ABSTRACTABS丁RAC丁WiththeinereasinglyfiereeeomPetit

10、ioninconsumergoodsindustry，theenterPrisewishestobudgetfuturerevenueandexPenditureaeeuratelytoaehieveProfitbenefittargetsbytakingPreeautionarymeasurestoavoidPotentialrisksandehangesofexternalfaetors.JieYa15aeonsumergoodse

11、omPany.TOexPandmarketandaehievesalestargets，thebudgetofsalesPromotionwillbemadefdifferentProduetsandseasonseaehyear.JieyaeomPanyneedonekindofseientifiemethodtomakePromotionbudget，buttheeurrentmethodofbudgetmanagementofJi

12、eya15notseientifiefoundationandaeeuraey，that15roughlymadebymanagersbasedonthemethodofqualitativeanalysisorexPerienees.Asaresult，theroughestimationmighteauselargefluetuationbetweenbudgetPlanandtheactualexeeutionbudget.Wha

13、t’5more，italsoleadstothedifficultyofeontrollingbusinessbudget.TheARIMAmodel，oneimPortantmethodoftimeseriesanalysis，15aPPliedinthedataminingofthePromotionbtxdgetmanagementtesolvetheeurrel:tissuesoftzeJieyaeomPany.Thecurre

14、ntstatusofun一seientifiebudgetxnanagementofeonsumergoodseomPanyandexistingissuesaswellasthefaetorsaffeetingthebudgetareexaminedearefullyatfirst.Then，aseientifieandaeeuratePromotionbudgetsolutionwiththehelPofARIMAmodelbase

15、donthetheoretiealknowledgeofARIMAmodelofdataminingteehnology，budgetmanagementandtheintegrationofthedemandofPromotionbudget15ProPosed:ThroughdataProeessingofsalesrevenuedataseries，ineludingdataPreParationandobservationdat

16、acharaeteristicaswellasstationaryProcessingandtestingareearriedout.ThenidentifieationthemodelandanalysistheeharacteristieoftllesedatatogettheParameterofARIMA(P，q，d)modelfthestationarydataseriesofsalesrevenueandehoosetheo

17、Ptimalmodel.Salesreven:le15feeastusingthisnlodelands%oftherevenue15extraetedasthebudgetPlannillg.Byeon1ParingtllePla一1withrlleaett一alvaltleazldotllersimilarsystemaswellasexamixlingthefeedbaekofaPPlyi一飛9result01’ARIMA1llo