海上油（氣）開(kāi)發(fā)工程定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法研究.pdf

1、天津大學(xué)博士學(xué)位論文海上油（氣）開(kāi)發(fā)工程定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法研究姓名：韓圣章申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：博士專業(yè)：結(jié)構(gòu)工程指導(dǎo)教師：胡云昌20021201AbstractInthisdissertation，severalimportantcomponentsinQuantityRiskAssessmentwerestudiedasfollowing：Concerningtotheescalationproblemforaccident，onedimen

2、sionexplosivemodelwithenergyincrementandbiexpansionmodelforleakagegaswereadoptedwhichcorrelatedtotheleakageamplitudetoanalyzetheexplosivepressureAnrelationbetweenloadingandmaxflexibilityforflexibleplatewithstresscontroll

3、ingstandardwasfoundedtoconsiderthedeformationofplateHeatfluxmodelandjetfiremultipointmodelwasusedtoanalyzethetemperatureeffectduringfireAnescalationstandardhasbeenestablishedCorrelationmatrixwasusedtoestablishthesimplest

4、faulttreeforfireprotectionsystemThefaulttreewastransferintodirectionaldiagramChainaggregatewasusedtoestablishstructurefunctionthatcouldgiveforthprobabilityHazarddegreewasusedtocalculatetheprobabilityoftopeventThechainagg

5、regateprobabilitycanbeusedtofinditemstobemodifiedToprovetheeffectiveness，fuzzymeasurementandfuzzyintegrationwereusedtoestimatetheexpectationprobabilityvaluefortopeventinfaulttreeAnexampleshowedtheanalysisprocedureConside

6、ringeffectfactorssuchasescalation，theevacuationriskandtimecalculationnetdiagramwasappliedwhereinvolvedinfuzzylogicsystemAnexampleusedthisideaProbabilityinfluencediagramcorrelatedtofaultmodeandeffectanalysismethodwasappli

7、edtiskanalysisCorrelationmatrixwasusedtoshowtherelationamongeventsHOEeffectwasconsideredasexecutivefactortocorrecttheprobabilityTheriskassessmentresultwashumanfatalprobabilitySomeimprovementmeasurewasdiscussedattheendThe

8、innovationalresearchesareasfollowing：1ComprehensivemodelsincludingexplosiveanalysisandleakagemagnitudewereusedtocalculatetheexplosivepressureanditsrelationtiskofplatformSimplifiedmodelswereestablishedtoanalyzethedeformat

9、ionofplateunderpressureandtemperatureeffectofpipelineunderjetfire2TaketheHoEfaultriskFaulttree，directiondiagram，hazarddegree，fuzzymeasurementandfuzzyintegrationwereusedtoestablishtheexpectationprobabilityoftopeventforfir

10、eprotectionsystemonplatform3FuzzylogicalsystemwasusedtoestimatetheevacuationriskandHOEeffectwasappliedtiskassessmentwithprobabilityinfluencediagramKeywords：QuantityRiskAssessmentFaultTreeStrueturaiFunction，F(xiàn)uzzyIntegrati