論貨幣危機(jī)中的攻擊性外匯投機(jī).pdf

1、復(fù)旦大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文論貨幣危機(jī)中的攻擊性外匯投機(jī)姓名：林峰申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)指導(dǎo)教師：張紀(jì)康2000.4.1ABSrI黜～CTCurrencverises，suchasSterlingcrisisin1992，MexicanPesocrisisin1995，J戢I(xiàn)aneseYenerisisin1996，AsianFinancialCrisisin1997&1998，andRussianFinancialCrisisin1

2、998，allrelatetOthespeculationintheforeignexchangemarketSoitisofgreatemergencytOpayattentiontothespeculationmsdissertationfocusesonthesubjectivespeculationwhichtakesmorethan98％ofdailyexchangevolume(Inspecialconditionthesu

3、bjectivespeculationisalsocalledtheattackingspeculation)，andanalysesitthroughspeculationtheoryspeculationstrategyandtheinterventioneffectfromcentralbank。ItsconclusioniS：exchangerateisresolvedbysomebasicfactorslikeInterest

4、RateParityPurchasingPowerParityandthebalanceofinternationalpayments，etc。，butitisalsoresolvedbytheexpectanceoftheattackingspeculatorsThere’refourchaptersinthisdissertation：Chapterone：GenemlAnalysisforthespeculationinthefo

5、reignexchangemarketFirstofall，fixtheconceptofthespeculation，separateintothesubjectivespeculationandtheobjectivespeculation，andfocustheresearchscopeofthisdissertationOUthesubjectivespeculationThenintroducethenonstabletheo

6、rystabletheoryanditsoppositetheory，raisethepersonalideathatitwilleffecttheforeignexchangeinshogormiddleperiodwhenthesubjectivespeculationoccupiesthemarketChaptertwo：ImpactModelofthespeculmionPutthemaindiscussiononthe3gen

7、erationimpactmodel，andrevealtheinconsistencybetweenthehypothesisandthereality翻托nfurtherclarifytheviewthatthecurrentdevelopmentspeedoftheforeignexchangemarketismuchfasterthanthedevelopmentspeedofitStheorySoitiSofgreatemer

8、gencytonotetheattackingspeculation。Chapterthree：CurrentspeculationStrategyInduceSeveralcurrentspeculationStrategytoshowthecomplexitySuccessiondeliberationandharmfulnessFinallyusegudendolphsideaof“General黼’toraisetheConce

9、ptionof“ComprehensiveSpeculation”Chapterfour：DefenseofthespeculationProvidethequantitativeandqualitativeanalysisthroughtheeffectoftheforeignexchangeinterventionfromCentralBank，revealthedilemmathatcentralBankfacesexcessiv