外文翻譯--項(xiàng)目投資決策方法研究期權(quán)法（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文3060字,1500單詞，8600英文字符</p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文資料翻譯</p><p>　　系 別： 經(jīng)濟(jì)系 </p><p>　　專 業(yè)： 會(huì)計(jì)學(xué) </p><p>　　姓 名： </p>

2、<p>　　學(xué) 號(hào)： </p><p>　　2015 年 4 月 30 日</p><p><b>　　外文原文</b></p><p>　　Project investment decision-making methods research:Real Options</p>

3、<p>　　Investment decision-making is an important part of the financial management. But there is little system study in this area. Some experts on management, economists provided the general principal of management d

4、ecision-making and strategic planning from their own standpoints. But they didn’t organically integrate the decision-making theories, strategic management and financial management. That is why I choose this topic. In th

5、is paper I provide the techniques system and control system of corporat</p><p>　　Key words：Investment decision-making, Theory basis, Decision-making method, Option </p><p>　　1. Introduction&l

6、t;/p><p>　　With the rapid development of global economic integration, corporates are facing the uncertain increasing factors, dynamic and complex characters of competition environment are quite distinctive. Esp

7、ecially the global financial and Euro crisis caused by the United States subprime mortgage in 2008 had a huge impact on the world economy, which emerged as a new form of the current global economic crisis, but also broug

8、ht about great risk to the enterprise financial management.</p><p>　　It is considered possible to make scientific Corporation investment decisions. Conventional investment theories held that successful inves

9、tments only depended on opportunities. Because the future environment is uncertain, And nobody can expect it precisely. There is sense in these theories as they revealed the fact that the investment has high risk. With t

10、he development of the management, economics and also investment theories themselves, conventional investment theories are replaced by the new </p><p>　　(1) The root of the return on corporation investment li

11、es in the fact that corporation controls particular intellective property not physical property. </p><p>　　(2) Corporation controls large amount of social resources by means of investment, transferring the p

12、roblem of resources allocation which should be settled by the market into the problem of the internal management. It can get more profit through cutting down the transaction cost. </p><p>　　(3) As that any

13、 product has the life cycle: introduction, development, maturation and wane. Exploiting new products is necessary for the sustainable development of the corporation. </p><p>　　(4) Investment gross should be

14、rational. </p><p>　　(5) Investment should be strategic. Investment decision-making is not decided by the profit of the investment some times. It is possible to invest just for competitive edge such as larger

15、 scale or extended market place. </p><p>　　(6) Risk not only can be measured, but also can be controlled and priced. </p><p>　　(7) Investment is a dynamic process.So investment can be reg

16、arded as buying an option. Investment decision-making can be analyzed by the option theories. </p><p>　　Theories which support the above points are: Manufacturer Specific Advantage Theory (Stephen H. Hymer,

17、1960; Charles P. Kindle Berger, 1969), Internalization Theory (Ronald H. Coase,1937 ), Product Life Cycle Theory ( Raymond Vernon, 1966 , Competitive Strategy Theory ( Michael E. Porter, 80s of the twentieth century), Ph

18、ysical Option Theory (Stephen A. Ross, 1995). These are the theoretical fountain-head of modern investment decision-making system.</p><p>　　2、Three types of development strategies raised by Michael E. Porter

19、 were introduced: product-market strategy, vertical integral development strategy and horizontal integral development strategy. And then it is proposed that a corporation should position itself according to its factual

20、situation, attach more importance to the operational specialization and scale expanding to reduce risks. Internal management level also should be taken into consideration.</p><p>　　3、It covers three problems

21、: how to establish the effective investment decision-making system, how to select proper investment decision-making procedures and how to establish investment withdrawal mechanism. The heart of the investment control sys

22、tem is not power, but some organic systems. Under the guidance of the strategy, each system can make concerted efforts to corporate. In order to guarantee that the decision-makings are made and implemented effectively, i

23、t is necessary to set up rational </p><p>　　4、With the rapid technology innovations and severe competitions, business enterprises are facing more and more uncertainties. Consequently, Investment projects hav

24、e to bear more risk. How to control risks and assess correctly the value of investment projects has become an increasingly important topic in the contemporary corporate investment decisions. Traditional methods of invest

25、ment appraisal is only from a static point of view of investment risks are often overlooked in the whole process mana</p><p>　　5、real option</p><p>　　(1)A novel fuzzy real option pricing method

26、has been presented. Through using fuzzy set theory, the use of normal fuzzy number is expected to express the present value of cash flow, and we make use of lattice closeness degree to construct weighted vectors. At last

27、, we construct a new type of real option pricing method. This method considers the fact that many data cannot be accurately quantified when investors make investment decision in fuzzy environment. Using fuzzy set theory

28、can improve the </p><p>　　(2)A project investment decision-making method has been proposed based on American real options owing to the timing characteristic of most of projects. In this dissertation, we cons

29、truct a variable grid finite difference method about the parabolic equation free boundary value problem of American option pricing model. This method has two advantages: first, the computation can be reduced because of s

30、olution region limited in the free boundary; second, the option value and the best exercise boundar</p><p>　　6、And then the principle of the physical option theory and its application are introduced. In the

31、capital market, a financial option gives the enterprise who holds the investment opportunity a right to purchase or sell a certain assets at a specific price during a specific period of time. Just as a financial option,

32、a corporation who grasping an investment opportunity also has this kind of right in the physical investment. In the foreseeable future, the corporation can get profit from the invest</p><p><b>　　外文資料翻譯

33、譯文</b></p><p>　　項(xiàng)目投資決策方法研究：期權(quán)法</p><p>　　摘要：按照決策學(xué)派的理論，管理實(shí)質(zhì)上就是決策。公司投資決策是公司財(cái)務(wù)管理的重要組成部分，對(duì)于公司成長(zhǎng)具有至關(guān)重要的意義。然而，一直以來(lái)，公司投資決策領(lǐng)域缺乏比較系統(tǒng)的研究。一些管理學(xué)家、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家分別從各自的領(lǐng)域提出了管理決策和公司戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的一般原理，但沒有將決策理論、戰(zhàn)略管理和公司財(cái)務(wù)管理有機(jī)結(jié)

34、合。本文即有機(jī)融合管理學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和財(cái)務(wù)管理理論，而且提出了公司投資決策的方法系統(tǒng)和控制系統(tǒng)</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：投資決策 ，理論基礎(chǔ)，決策方法，期權(quán)</p><p><b>　　1、介紹</b></p><p>　　隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程的快速發(fā)展，企業(yè)面臨的不確定因素迅速增多，企業(yè)預(yù)算管理面臨的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境也越來(lái)越呈現(xiàn)出動(dòng)態(tài)復(fù)雜多變的特征

35、。特別是2008年由美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引起的全球金融危機(jī)以及此后發(fā)生的歐債危機(jī)，對(duì)全世界實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了巨大影響，成為當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的新形式，也給企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)帶來(lái)極大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　公司投資決策是可以科學(xué)化的。很多投資項(xiàng)目都是憑經(jīng)驗(yàn)和勇氣進(jìn)行，缺乏科學(xué)的投資分析和合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制；有些理論認(rèn)為投資毫無(wú)理論而言，投資成功完全憑運(yùn)氣，因?yàn)槲磥?lái)的情況是復(fù)雜多變的，誰(shuí)都無(wú)法準(zhǔn)確估計(jì)。應(yīng)該說(shuō)這些說(shuō)法不無(wú)可取之處，至少

36、它揭示了投資具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性，公司進(jìn)行投資決策時(shí)應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎從事。以此為基礎(chǔ)形成了各種各樣的傳統(tǒng)投資理論。隨著管理學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和投資理論本身的發(fā)展，傳統(tǒng)投資理論逐漸被人們摒棄，新的科學(xué)的現(xiàn)代投資理論逐漸成為公司投資決策的主流?，F(xiàn)代投資理論的主要觀點(diǎn)是： </p><p>　　（1）公司投資獲利的根源在于公司掌握了獨(dú)特的知識(shí)資產(chǎn)，而不是物質(zhì)資產(chǎn)； </p><p>　?。?）公司通過(guò)投資控制了大量的社會(huì)

37、資源，將需要由市場(chǎng)解決的資源配置問題轉(zhuǎn)換為公司內(nèi)部管理問題，通過(guò)降低交易費(fèi)用而獲利； </p><p>　?。?）由于任何產(chǎn)品都存在一個(gè)“導(dǎo)入——增長(zhǎng)——成熟——衰退”的生命周期，因此不斷投資開發(fā)新產(chǎn)品成為公司持續(xù)發(fā)展必須進(jìn)行的“必修課”； </p><p>　?。?）公司投資總量應(yīng)該合理，過(guò)低或過(guò)高都將得不償失；</p><p>　?。?）投資具有戰(zhàn)略性，投資決策

38、可能不完全取決于利潤(rùn)，還可能是為了獲得更大的規(guī)模、更多的市場(chǎng)等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)； </p><p>　?。?）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不僅是可以度量的，而且是可以控制和定價(jià)的，較高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)著較高的投資報(bào)酬，較低的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)則對(duì)應(yīng)著較低的投資報(bào)酬，同時(shí)，科學(xué)的投資組合可以降低投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)； </p><p>　　（7）投資是一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程，因此，投資也可以理解為購(gòu)入一個(gè)期權(quán)，投資決策可以用期權(quán)理論進(jìn)行分析。 </p>

39、<p>　　支持以上結(jié)論的理論有：廠商壟斷優(yōu)勢(shì)理論（海黙，1960 年；金德伯格，1969 年）、內(nèi)部化理論（科斯，1937 年）、產(chǎn)品生命周期理論（弗農(nóng)，1966 年）、廠商增長(zhǎng)最大化理論（馬里斯、鮑莫爾和加爾布雷斯等，20 世紀(jì) 60 年代）、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)戰(zhàn)略理論（邁克爾·波特，20世紀(jì) 80 年代）、實(shí)物期權(quán)理論（Stephen A. Ross，1995 年）。這些理論分別從不同的方面說(shuō)明了公司投資的根源、動(dòng)力、方

40、法和評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，成為現(xiàn)代投資決策系統(tǒng)的理論淵源。</p><p>　　2、邁克爾·波特的三種基本戰(zhàn)略類型：全面成本領(lǐng)先、差異化和集中戰(zhàn)略，并以此為基礎(chǔ)分析了公司的三種成長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略：產(chǎn)品——市場(chǎng)型戰(zhàn)略、垂直一體化成長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略和水平一體化成長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略，在此基礎(chǔ)上，提出公司投資決策的考量因素問題，公司不再單純追求多樣化經(jīng)營(yíng)和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大，而是根據(jù)自身戰(zhàn)略定位，即注重經(jīng)營(yíng)專業(yè)化又關(guān)注擴(kuò)大規(guī)模，分散經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)，必須充分考

41、慮公司內(nèi)部管理水平來(lái)制定投資策略。</p><p>　　3、投資控制系統(tǒng)的核心不是權(quán)力，而是保證有效地做出和執(zhí)行決策，需要的是若干有組織的系統(tǒng)，在公司戰(zhàn)略指導(dǎo)下，各套系統(tǒng)能夠在投資決策上通力合作。因此，為了保證公司投資決策的有效執(zhí)行，必須構(gòu)筑合理的組織結(jié)構(gòu)、建立有效的情報(bào)系統(tǒng)、建立科學(xué)的分析評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)、建立事后審計(jì)系統(tǒng)和有效的投資績(jī)效測(cè)評(píng)系統(tǒng)?？茖W(xué)的投資決策程序應(yīng)當(dāng)包括以下有機(jī)結(jié)合的四個(gè)步驟：明確組織任務(wù)，環(huán)境分析

42、，擬定投資計(jì)劃，執(zhí)行投資計(jì)劃。公司投資的退出并非是選擇放棄，而是一種資源優(yōu)化，為進(jìn)一步投資做準(zhǔn)備，使企業(yè)的下一次“出拳”更有力。因此應(yīng)充分認(rèn)識(shí)合理的投資退出機(jī)制所帶來(lái)的良好效應(yīng)，把握好退出的最佳時(shí)機(jī)，在公開上市、整體出售、改制、重組、托管和融資性租賃、內(nèi)部合并、轉(zhuǎn)讓關(guān)閉、破產(chǎn)、清算等眾多投資退出途徑中選擇合理的退出方式。實(shí)際上，應(yīng)該把投資退出作為公司投資決策的一個(gè)重要組成部分，在選擇投資項(xiàng)目時(shí)就必須考慮好如何退出的問題，及早做出安排，盡

43、量降低退出的成本和障礙。</p><p>　　4、隨著技術(shù)更新的加快和市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的加劇，企業(yè)發(fā)展面臨著越來(lái)越大的不確定性，這使得投資決策要承擔(dān)更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如何控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和正確評(píng)估投資項(xiàng)目的價(jià)值，成為當(dāng)代企業(yè)進(jìn)行投資決策所面臨的一個(gè)日趨重要的課題。傳統(tǒng)的投資評(píng)估方法只是從靜態(tài)角度考慮投資面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，往往忽視管理者在整個(gè)過(guò)程中的靈活性，如放棄、轉(zhuǎn)換、擴(kuò)大投資等，因此不能準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估投資項(xiàng)目的價(jià)值，從而導(dǎo)致投資決策的失誤。將期

44、權(quán)思想引入到投資決策領(lǐng)域，把投資中存在的選擇權(quán)視為一種期權(quán)，就形成了實(shí)物期權(quán)概念。利用實(shí)物期權(quán)的觀點(diǎn)看待投資，可以更好地理解不確定性、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、收益三者之間的關(guān)系。實(shí)物期權(quán)理論將投資項(xiàng)目中的各種投資機(jī)會(huì)與經(jīng)營(yíng)柔性視作期權(quán)進(jìn)行量化分析研究，充分考慮了投資活動(dòng)中各種靈活性的價(jià)值，是投資決策理論的一項(xiàng)重要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新。</p><p><b>　　5、實(shí)物期權(quán)</b></p><p>

45、　　（1）提出了一種新型模糊實(shí)物期權(quán)定價(jià)方法。通過(guò)利用模糊集理論，使用正態(tài)模糊數(shù)表示預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流收益現(xiàn)值，并提出利用格貼近度構(gòu)造權(quán)向量，構(gòu)造出一種新型實(shí)物期權(quán)定價(jià)方法。該方法考慮了投資者在模糊環(huán)境下進(jìn)行的投資決策中許多數(shù)據(jù)不能精確量化的事實(shí)，借助模糊集理論提高定價(jià)方法的實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值。此外，經(jīng)證明發(fā)現(xiàn)用正態(tài)模糊數(shù)表示預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流收益更為合理，從而通過(guò)構(gòu)造新型模糊實(shí)物期權(quán)方法為單項(xiàng)目投資決策提供理論依據(jù)。</p><p>

46、;　?。?）針對(duì)大多數(shù)項(xiàng)目投資具有時(shí)間選擇的特性，提出一種基于美式實(shí)物期權(quán)的項(xiàng)目投資決策分析方法。該法主要針對(duì)美式期權(quán)定價(jià)模型的拋物型方程自由邊值問題構(gòu)造出一種變網(wǎng)格差分方法，它有兩個(gè)優(yōu)點(diǎn)：一是求解區(qū)域限定在自由邊界內(nèi)，從而減少了計(jì)算量；二是在求出期權(quán)值的同時(shí)也求出了期權(quán)的最佳執(zhí)行邊界。該方法能夠?yàn)轫?xiàng)目投資的實(shí)物期權(quán)提供理論求解方法，同時(shí)能夠確定項(xiàng)目的最佳投資時(shí)間，為投資者是否進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目投資提供決策，理論和實(shí)驗(yàn)顯示該方法是高效而準(zhǔn)確的，此

47、外，本文結(jié)合實(shí)際項(xiàng)目投資決策的具體過(guò)程詳細(xì)分析了基于美式實(shí)物期權(quán)的項(xiàng)目投資決策方法，使得管理者更為直觀地掌握基于實(shí)物期權(quán)的項(xiàng)目投資決策方法，為企業(yè)進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目投資決策提供理論和實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)。</p><p>　　6、實(shí)物期權(quán)理論原理及其在投資決策中的應(yīng)用。在資本市場(chǎng)上，一個(gè)金融期權(quán)給予投資者一種權(quán)利，使之在某段特定的時(shí)間內(nèi)，支付一個(gè)事先確定的執(zhí)行價(jià)格而取得某種特定的資產(chǎn)；或者以一個(gè)事先確定的執(zhí)行價(jià)格轉(zhuǎn)讓某項(xiàng)資產(chǎn)。和金融期

48、權(quán)類似的在實(shí)物投資中，一個(gè)掌握投資機(jī)會(huì)的企業(yè)同樣持有這樣一種權(quán)利，在將來(lái)的某一時(shí)段內(nèi)，支付一定的投資成本而得到投資收益，企業(yè)可以根據(jù)行權(quán)有效期內(nèi)項(xiàng)目投資狀況的好壞來(lái)決定行使或放棄這種權(quán)利。運(yùn)用金融期權(quán)定價(jià)模型，可以計(jì)算出實(shí)物期權(quán)的價(jià)值（C）。持有投資機(jī)會(huì)就像持有一個(gè)金融看漲期權(quán)，投資項(xiàng)目相當(dāng)于金融期權(quán)的標(biāo)的物，項(xiàng)目的投資支出相當(dāng)于金融期權(quán)中標(biāo)的物的執(zhí)行價(jià)格（K），投資期內(nèi)的收益現(xiàn)值相當(dāng)于金融期權(quán)中標(biāo)的物的當(dāng)前價(jià)格（S），在不失去投資機(jī)會(huì)