基于前景理論的出行路徑選擇模型.pdf

1、長沙理工大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于前景理論的出行路徑選擇模型姓名：王任映申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：交通運(yùn)輸規(guī)劃與管理指導(dǎo)教師：黃中祥20090315ABSTRACTInthetrafficsystem，therearelotsoftravelers，whojudgetheroadsituationsandmakedecisionsaswellaschooseareasonablebettertravelpathaccordingtoavaila

2、bleinformationandcontinuousindividualexperience，inthecourseoftravellingfromoneplacetoanotherThereforesomeresearchesshowedthat，travelchoicebehaviorundertheuncertaintyoftrafficsystem，especiallythestartingtimeandthechoiceof

3、thepathintravelbehaviorisinlinewiththebasicpointofprospecttheoryItilluminatedthatprospecttheorycanbeusedinthestudyoftravelers’travelchoicedecisionbehaviorunderreal—timeinformationenvironmentInthispaper，itfirstlyintroduce

4、sroutechoicemodelundertheconditionsofuncertaintywhichtheoreticallybasedonincludingtheexpectedutilitytheoryandrandomutilitytheory，prospecttheoryartificialneuralnetworksandfuzzysettheoryaswellasthelearningmodelByanalysisof

5、modelhasbeenproposed，itsuggestedtheapplicabilityofprospecttheory—basedpathchoicebehaviormodellingThen，itputforwardthetheoreticalbackgroundaswellastheoreticalGoreoftheProspectTheoryandfocusonananalysisforthetheoreticalstu

6、dystatusofProspectTheoryanditsexistingresearchofcombinationwiththeroutechoicemodelBeginningfromthetraditionalroutechoicereferencepointbasedonProspectTheoryitdetermineditsvaluefunctionbasedontheimprovedtimebudgetbasedrefe

7、rencepointbycombinedwiththetimebudgetandvalidpaththeoryaswellasitsrelatedtheoryWithsettingthetravelers’subjectiveprobabilityaswellasweightingfunction，itproposedaprospectvaluecalculatingmodelofallalternativepathsAndthenit

8、gotthefinalchoiceofroutechoiceSubsequently，bybuildingaroadnetworkandsettingthenetworkpropertiesandmodelparameters，anumericalexampleisconstructedItanalyzeddifferentroutechoicesofdifferenttravelersundervariedtrafficconditi

9、ons，andalsodidstochasticuserequilibriumflowdistributiononthenetworkFinallythoughasimpleexample，itanalyzedconcretelythedifferentroutechoiceresultsoftravelersdifferentlybasedonthetraditionalexpectedutilitybasedroutechoicem

10、odel，traditionalprospecttheory—basedroutechoicemodelaswellastheimprovedprospecttheorybasedroutechoicemodel，andshowedthattheimprovedroutechoicemodelisbetterthantheoriginaloneinillustratingtheactualtravelers’travelbehavior