本科畢業(yè)論文 (設(shè)計(jì)) -貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)股票指數(shù)影響的實(shí)證分析

1、惠州學(xué)院HUIZHOUUNIVERSITY畢業(yè)論文中文題目：中文題目：貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)股票指數(shù)影響的實(shí)證分析貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)股票指數(shù)影響的實(shí)證分析英文題目：英文題目：Theempiricalanalysisoftheinfluencefrommoarypolicytostockindexinourcountry貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)股票指數(shù)影響的實(shí)證分析貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)股票指數(shù)影響的實(shí)證分析摘要摘要近些年，貨幣政策對(duì)股市發(fā)展的影響一直都是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論

2、中的熱點(diǎn)問題。中國(guó)股市發(fā)展至今，已有近20年的時(shí)間，在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中已成為不可或缺的一個(gè)重要部分，逐漸呈現(xiàn)出國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)“晴雨表”的雛形。而在近幾年，股票價(jià)格暴漲暴跌，大起大落的股市行情使很多投資者損失巨大，也使整個(gè)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)遭受了深刻的震動(dòng)。因此，本文運(yùn)用現(xiàn)代的計(jì)量統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法，從事中和事后兩個(gè)不同的側(cè)面深入研究我國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)股票指數(shù)的影響和作用，即通過貨幣政策工具的過程變量（廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量M2銀2.2.1經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指標(biāo).............

3、.......................................................................................................62.2.2物價(jià)指數(shù)...........................................................................................................

4、.................73中國(guó)股市近十年的發(fā)展概況....................................................................................................................73.12001年國(guó)有股減持，開始啟動(dòng)長(zhǎng)達(dá)4年大熊市...............................................

5、........................73.220052006年股權(quán)分置改革完成，牛市呼之即來...................................................................83.42008年股指一落千丈......................................................................................

6、.............................93.52009年至2010年，股市初見“小陽(yáng)春”.................................................................................94貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)股指影響的實(shí)證分析...................................................................

7、.................................94.1數(shù)據(jù)變量的選取............................................................................................................................94.1.1股票指數(shù)(SZ)......................................

8、..............................................................................94.1.2貨幣供應(yīng)量(M2)..............................................................................................................104.1.3利率(Rate30)

9、..................................................................................................................104.1.4工業(yè)增加值(GYZ).........................................................................................

10、...................104.1.5居民消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)(CPI)................................................................................................104.2數(shù)據(jù)的處理...........................................................................

11、.......................................................114.3實(shí)證分析（使用軟件EViews）.................................................................................................124.3.1各變量的單位根檢驗(yàn)...............................

12、.......................................................................124.3.2方程的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)..............................................................................................................144.3.3誤差修正模型（ECM）.......

13、.............................................................................................154.3.4格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)..............................................................................................................164

14、.4實(shí)證結(jié)論與解釋..........................................................................................................................174.4.1兩大貨幣政策中介工具變量對(duì)股指的影響................................................................

15、..174.4.2兩大貨幣政策目標(biāo)變量對(duì)股指的影響..........................................................................195政策建議..................................................................................................................

16、................................215.1慎用存款準(zhǔn)備金率政策，更多的采用公開市場(chǎng)操作，逐步推進(jìn)銀行資金入市..................215.2加快利率市場(chǎng)化步伐..................................................................................................................225.

17、3優(yōu)化投資者結(jié)構(gòu)，減少政府的直接干預(yù)..................................................................................22致謝....................................................................................................................

18、........................................24參考文獻(xiàn)........................................................................................................................................................25附表1：原始數(shù)據(jù)............

19、.............................................................................................................................27附表2：調(diào)整后的數(shù)據(jù)...................................................................................